Tech Desk: Get ready for higher bills: smartphone prices are set to remain elevated through 2028, with a severe memory crisis threatening the very existence of affordable devices. The global smartphone market is entering a tougher cycle, grappling with both rising component costs and shrinking shipments, which will significantly impact what manufacturers launch and how much you pay.

The pressure is particularly intense on the budget segment. IDC forecasts a sharper 16.7% year-on-year decline in global smartphone shipments for 2026, with the second half taking the hardest hit. Memory prices are expected to continue increasing until at least 2028, meaning next year’s models could cost more than this year’s, further squeezing consumer budgets and limiting choices in the entry-level market.

Devices priced under $100 face an existential crisis, having seen an almost 60% year-on-year decline in Q2 2026. Manufacturers are actively cutting low-end models, shifting focus to more expensive devices where margins are less thin. This trend will lead to fewer affordable smartphone options and potentially longer replacement cycles for consumers, especially in emerging markets.

While premium brands like Apple, Samsung, and Huawei are better positioned to absorb higher costs due to their scale and pricing power, smaller Android players heavily reliant on entry-level sales may struggle to survive. When memory supply eventually stabilizes in 2028, the market is expected to be smaller in units but larger in value, becoming even more concentrated at the top.